The Collapsing Bubble 

The Collapsing Bubble: Growth and Fossil Energy. Santa Ana: Seven Locks Press, 2005.  74 pages.

This slim book is not really a traditional book at all but takes the form of three loosely connected essays.  The main focus is on population, as he explores resources in the context of population.  The "bubble" to which he refers is not just a speculative bubble of economic growth, but of population growth.  He summarizes quite a bit of information in very little space.  There is no startling new information here but his analysis and facts are sound.   

The author is connected with the group "Negative Population Growth" and he explicitly raises the question — just how many people can we support with declining energy supplies? He does not provide any particular answers or plans to further birth control or limit family size, but rather pushes for raising the questions and popularizing the idea of an "upper limit."  A quote from the book which he puts on the back cover summarizes his point of view on population:

"The debate has been cast in the wrong terms.  The problem cannot be solved if we keep asking: 'What energy sources will be available to replace fossil fuels?'  We should instead ask: what populations can be supported at a decent starndard by the energy sources that will be available after the transition from fossil fuels?" (P. 61)

The most attractive feature of the book is Figure 1, "U. S. Energy Use and Population, 1900-2100" — a chart which is featured on the front page of the book as well as page 22. This chart assumes no policy change and just extrapolates all our energy sources and the projected rise in U. S. population.  He makes clear that this is NOT his recommendation, just what current policy entails!

His graph assumes that coal will increase at 2% per year until about 2070, when we’ll be halfway through our coal supplies and coal use will fall off too. This gives a rather grim energy history of the twenty-first century. Total energy use in the U. S. peaks at 100 quads (quadrillion BTU) in 2010, then falls off quickly to about 85 quads a decade later because of the "peak" of oil supplies. But then, as coal increases, total energy use increases as well, despite declining oil and natural gas, reaching a new peak of 120 quads in about 2070. 

So far, so good . . . but after 2070, coal passes its peak and starts to decline.  Energy use collapses quickly so that by 2100 it is about 65 quads and declining. If U. S. population also doubles between 2000 and 2100, the BTUs per person in 2100 would only be 1/3 of the value in 2000 — and that’s compounded by the lack of an energy future after that point, as coal supplies again dwindle. This is scary stuff!

He tends to discount biomass of any sort, saying that it is closely related to demographics.  "With a small enough population, biomass could fill much of the energy gap" (p. 47).  But when the competition for land becomes intense, things do not look good for biomass.

This little book is well worth reading because his summaries of the information is sound and because he explicitly raises the question of population.